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League vote!!! Does Mel Kiper need a friendly chip!  His analysis is as informative as ever.

1 Opening: Southern California

MEL KIPER STRIKES AGAIN!!!  SEASON STARTS IN AUGUST

I want to welcome you all to Mel Kiper’s 9th Annual TTFBA Draft Analysis. This year I have been having bad dreams about the TTFBA draft, with ghosts of drafts past like Doug Johnson and Jerry Bearden drifting through my head. But luckily the TTFBA draft is about the future, and not the past so this year I am as excited as ever to dig into the most amazing draft event available. In fact, there are rumours that the real reason that Commissioner Weyenberg left his post as the Muncie owner is that he has signed a lucrative television deal for TTFBA draft coverage. Millions of people watch the NFL draft and the TTFBA draft figures to draw an even larger crowd with such features as zooming into the Greenville draft warroom as they select a player that had already been drafted over and over again. Drama like that simply cannot be duplicated anywhere.

This year, as an added feature, I am going to reveal exactly were I, Mel Kiper draft expert, believed the player should have been selected. So, lets sit back and enjoy the 9th installment of our coverage of the TTFBA draft.

1. North Carolina Matt Ryan Quarterback Boston College

North Carolina traded aggressively to acquire the premium player in this draft. There seldom is a draft were the best player stands so far above the rest of the crowd and that is why NCT traded up. When you are considering “moving up” in the draft review this trade. This is how to acquire the players you need to draft and build championship teams.

Ryan has a solid combination of quarterback skills although none of them can be considered to be NFL elite except for perhaps his leadership skills. As a rookie he led the Falcons to the playoffs, playing a much more substantial role in this outcome than Joe Flacco did in Baltimore. As the Falcons continue to acquire more weapons for Ryan and improve their defense Ryan’s potential may not have been reached.

Grade: B+ Should have been selected: First Overall

2. Mt. Pilot Joe Flacco Quarterback Deleware

Flacco is a one of those rare players that basically come out of nowhere and wow the NFL scouts with an elite skill. And, for Joe Flacco, that skill is arm strength. He may have the strongest arm in the NFL for a pure pocket passer. Like Matt Ryan, Flacco led his team to the playoffs as a rookie, but unlike Ryan at times he played like a rookie. It probably does not help that he had to play the Steelers three times, but at times his accuracy and decision making came into question even within the limited game plan his coaches put in for the rookie.

Grade: C+ Should have been selected: Picks 2-4

3. Death Valley Ryan Clady Tackle Boise St.

Even as a rookie Clady was an excellent left tackle. He has the length and mobility to handle NFL rushers. Clady will most likely be a feature in the AFC Pro-Bowl for years to come. NFL left tackles get paid to protect the passer and this is what Clady excels at. His run blocking skills are not at such a high level, but Denver’s zone blocking schemes may have been suited to his more finesse style. However, with a new coaching staff coming in they may adjust the offensive line scheme that will not emphasis such skills. I lowered this grade slightly because I do not have Clady rated any higher than Jake Long.

Grade: C Should have been selected: Pick 2-4

4. Real Charleston Chris Johnson Running Back East Carolina

Johnson is a speed merchant at the running back spot. Usually athletes with his speed play the wide receiver or cornerback position. In some ways Johnson is a hybrid running back that does a tremendous amount of damage receiving the ball out of the backfield. Teams at the beginning of the year had a difficult time containing him but as the season went on his yards per carry decreased against decent to good defenses. The key question with Johnson is if he can continue to get outside against good defenses and remain healthy. But the Titans utilize Johnson well and rest him to protect him from injury.

Regardless, it is a very questionable decision to take Johnson over Matt Forte. Forte is a workhorse running back that showed as much versatility. In fact, Forte had more receptions and a higher yards per catch than Johnson. Johnson had a higher yards per carry, but he also ran behind a much better offensive line than Matt Forte.

Grade: C-- Should have been selected: Pick 8-15

5. Dallas Steve Slaton Running Back West Virginia

A person can make an argument to take Chris Johnson before Matt Forte, but the selection of Slaton over Forte is ridiculous. Like Johnson, Slaton had a higher YPC than Forte and showed good receiving skills out of the backfield. But Forte is still the superior player overall. A solid college running back Slaton slipped to the third round of the NFL draft because he lacks the home run speed NFL teams look for. But Slaton showed that his between the tackle running skills transferred to the NFL. Another reason to question the pick was the Texans interest in free agent RB Cedric Benson in the off season.

Slaton should be a valuable contributor in a rotational backfield, even for years to come but this may limit his value.

Grade: D+ Should have been selected: Picks 10-15

6. Donelson Antonio Bryant Wide Receiver Pittsburgh

A perennial enigma, Bryant finally lived up to his expectations in his seventh NFL season and reenters the TTFBA draft after missing the 2007 season. Considered a standout college wide receiver Bryant slid to the second round of the 2002 NFL draft mainly because of character concerns. Even at this stage of his career those character concerns are still relevant and one needs to also add major injury concerns to these factors.

Yet, his success in 2008 cannot be denied and the BUccaners are probably going to build more of the offense around him in 2009. But Bryant has never put together back to back NFL seasons so the questions will need to be answered. Because of this, Eddie Royal had to be considered a much better selection and was far and away my top wide receiver pick in this draft and Jake Long is by far a superior player.

Grade: C- Should have been selected: Picks 7-10

7. Wasau Jake Long Offensive Tackle Michigan

The first overall pick in the NFL draft goes 7th in the TTFBA draft. And, like the NFL draft Long goes to a rebuilding TTFBA team that can only hope for the turnaround that Jake Long’s Miami Dolphins had in 2008. A total road grader of a tackle Long has the size to be a power blocker and length to be a superior pass protector. Like other Michigan offensive linemen he plays mean in the trenches and should be a fixture on NFL All-Pro teams for years to come.

Grade: A Should have been selected: 2-4

8. Dayton DeSean Jackson Wide Receiver Cal

Jackson is a player made valuable by his versatility. Yet, his lack of size not only pushed him into the NFL 2nd round it limits his TTFBA value because he is more than likely to be a secondary receiver than a goto slot receiver that maximized his number of receptions because unlike Eddie Royal, Jackson simply does not have the strength to operate from the slot in the NFL. In comparing the two Royal needs to be rated higher because he is at least Jackson’s equal in versatility, perhaps even a better return man and more of a true slot receiver.

Grade: C- Should have been selected: 10-15

9. Transylvania Darren McFadden Running Back Arkansas

McFadden is a physical freak of nature that may not ever translate to the NFL. Blessed with inhuman speed he played in a gimmick offense in college and really did not get enough playing time to demonstrate if he could become an elite running back in the NFL. It is clearly part of the Raiders plan to try to feature McFadden more in their offense in 2009, but then he will still have to play in a rotation with at least Justin Fargas and he the type of physical build and play that seems to lead to injury problems in the NFL. Acquiring a player like McFadden is interesting, but he is a reach at #9 and even more so with running backs like Matt Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith and even Felix Jones also available. Sliding down in the draft, acquiring more value later, and then picking McFadden is the proper move. With all of the other running backs and other premier players like Jarrod Mayo also available this is a very poor pick.

Grade: D Should have been selected: Late first round-early second round

10. So. California Eddie Royal Wide Receiver Virginia Tech

One of my favorite players from the 2008 NFL draft, I predicted that Royal would in time develop into a player like Wes Welker with even better return skills. He is a small player with incredible strength and quickness. What I did not predict was that Royal would develop so quickly into a very good NFL wideout which probably limited him in demonstrating his outstanding return abilities. So. California received a major gift when the best wide receiver in the draft fell to them with the 10th selection.

Grade: A- Should have been selected: 8-12

11. San Pedro B. Jeff Otah Offensive Tackle Pitt

Otah is a prototypical NFL right tackle that still can develop his skills, especially as a pass protector. Agile for a large guy, the Panthers paid a large price, including a future first round pick to trade back into the first round and select Otah. But with the emergence of a dominant rushing attack in Carolina the move paid large dividends as Deangelo Williams and fellow NFL (and TTFBA) first round draft pick Jonathan Stewart ran well and often. But, because Otah will most likely remain on the right side of the line for his entire NFL career his valuation will most likely be capped.

Unfortunately for our new San Pedro Deuce owner, the draft order was not clear and he was late making this selection and lost out on a few players that may have had more value.

Grade: C (based on where he was actually selected) Should have been selected: 13-20

12. Fresno Jerrod Mayo Inside Linebacker Tennessee

The first defensive player selected, Mayo is an incredibly mobile inside linebacker perfectly fitted for the Patriots defensive scheme. Mayo’s selection with the 12th (really 11th selection) marks the latest pick for the first defensive player in the TTFBA draft, and really shows what a steal Mayo is for Fresno. In some ways Mayo compares to a couple of inside linebackers like DeMarco Ryans (who previously was the latest first defensive player selected 9th overall 2 years ago) and Jonathan Vilma selected 6th in the 2005 draft. But Mayo has superior measurable than either of these players. He has the speed of Vilma and size of Ryans which makes for an incredible combination, particularly when placed in a defensive scheme that will maximize his productivity through the years.

Grade: A Should have been selected: 5-10

13. New England Dominique Rogers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St.

Cromartie is my top rated cornerback and an excellent selection at this place in the draft. Like the NFL cornerback is a premium position in the TTFBA and Rogers-Cromartie has the potential to become a shut down corner which was well demonstrated in the Cardinal’s run to the Super Bowl. But, at this point in his career DRC relies purely on his physical skills and with his small college background it can be argued that he will have a hard time developing the technique required to become a total package.

Grade: B Should have been selected: 10-15

14. San Pedro Original Sedrick Ellis Defensive Tackle USC

A mini-run of defensive players in a offensively dominated TTFBA draft brings the best defensive linemen to the Corsairs. Ellis is a penetrating lineman that could compare favorably to Kevin Williams as he gains experience. Injury concerns have plagued him in his career and Ellis will need to increase his sack totals to become a known player that rates high in the TTFBA.

Grade: C+ Should have been selected: 12-20

15. Montcalm Matt Forte Running Back Tulane

Forte demonstrated perhaps the most complete package of any running back available in this draft. For him to drop to #15 for Montcalm is a complete steal. IF he would have been selected with the 2nd selection it would not have been a total reach. While Forte may not have the elite physicality of a Darren McFadden, the speed of a Chris Johnson, or the power of a Jonathan Stewart he had above average NFL attributes in these categories and showed a tremendous ability to catch the ball out of the backfield or spread out as a receiver. Further, while these other backs are part of a backfield rotation Forte was a true workhorse and drove his running back competition out of town.

Grade: A Should have been drafted: 5-10

16. Knoxville Jonathan Stewart Running Back Oregon

Stewart demonstrates the differences between evaluating a player for the TTFBA draft and the NFL draft. If this were the NFL I would probably rank Stewart as my top running back prospect. Yet, for the TTFBA draft Matt Forte is by far a superior prospect than Stewart, and frankly, the other running backs available. Stewart is a running back that combines speed with power and is perhaps the top inside the tackle runner in this draft. The one negative aspect about Stewart is that unlike the other running backs selected in this round he is not a versatile player in the passing game.

Grade: B- Should have been drafted: 12-15

17. Greenville Kevin Smith Running Back Central Florida

Smith is by definition a workhorse back. In college Smith set a NCAA record with 450 rushing attempts in a season and paced the Lions running game. Smith began the year as the starter but was replaced in the middle of the season before returning to the starting lineup later in the season and upgrading his output. A team that has very young skill players, Smith does not have any major competiton on the roster so he appears that his end of year performance will carry him into next year. His total output will depend how the lowly Lions do.

However, if you are Greenville the choice of Smith is beyond questionable and is outright stupity. When your stable of running backs includes Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, and even Willis McGahee selecting another running back with your pick is lunacy, even if he is the best player available. If Kevin Smith had such strong value to take him, then clearly other teams would be interested in paying a premium to move up to select him. If that is not the case and Smith is not a premium player at this value slot, then how can a team with this roster justify selecting another RB over a WR prospect like Donnie Avery, or a DLine prospect like Chris Long, the 2nd overall selection in the NFL draft?

The only question for Greenville will be if their owner will be able to select a player that has not already been selected during this draft.

Grade: F Should have been selected: 15-20

18. Donelson John Carlson TE Notre Dame

With the second of their 3 first round picks Donelson selects the best tight end available in the draft. Unlike Dustin Keller, Carlson is more of a old-school NFL tight end that finds holes in zone defenses, has soft hands, and noticeable inline blocking skills. But old school tight ends do not have the amazing physical attributes , primarily speed, that more modern tight ends like Keller possess. Yet Carlson should be a fixture in the Seahawks passing game and a very good TTFBA tight end in the mold of a Frank Wycheck.

Grade: C+ Should have been selected: 15-20

19. Steeltown Martellus Bennett Tight End Texas A&M

Maybe if the draft was about amazing physical attributes Bennett would be an appropriate choice here, but unfortunately for Steeltown that is not the case. Bennett is a major reach here because not only are their superior players available, he isn’t even the second best tight end available in this draft. This pick simply demonstrates that drafting for need in the TTFBA can lead to major draft errors, particularly if your talent evaluation is off. Taking Dustin Keller here, a modern speed tight end that figures to play more and more of a role in the New York Jets passing game would have been an acceptable choice and filled this need. Yet, when Carlson, the top TE available went 18, the Roughnecks seemed to simply go down the list of their need position to make this selection.

Again, if for inside reasons Bennett was the player they truly coveted, Steeltown should have traded far down and acquired equal value for this selection. To get maximum draft value a general manager needs to understand the relative value of these types of players. This I refer to as the Al Davis Effect. That is, even if they have an idiosyncratic valuation of certain players, they need to know where those players are valued by the rest of the league. To understand Bennett’s true value, if Steeltown would have selected the player they chose at 2.19, DT Jason Jones here I would not be as critical.

This demonstrates the age old question of drafting for need or drafting the best player available, THE BPA! Earlier I criticized a team for apparently selecting a player they had to consider to be the BPA, Greenville and Kevin Smith. Now, I am criticizing a team for selecting for need. Clearly, these picks demonstrate the weighing of these two factors in a draft.

The truth of the matter is that in the NFL draft there are very few situations were there clearly is a BPA. Most selections are heavily weighted by need. However, in the TTFBA draft we get to see the players in their rookie season, so BPA becomes more relevant. Essentially, in the first couple of rounds of the draft a team should select the best player regardless of position. One of my highest recommendations is that a TTFBA teams should be complete, that is without holes in the starting lineup, before the draft. Then it does not need to find a “starting” guard.

One way I like to look at it is that you could assign a value to each player for the draft, lets say 0-10. Then, you could also assign a value for your need at a position, lets say in the range of -0.5 to 0.5. Then, you add these values to the players grade and select the best score.

In the case of Greenville above, the running back position would probably have a -0.5 need score. If they though Smith was that much more valuable than Donnie Avery, a position they had to have close to a +0.5 need score, then I guess in their minds the pick was justified. But, not in our minds.

Another point that needs to be emphasized here is the trading of draft picks. The reason why so many mistakes are made in the TTFBA Draft is that teams do not trade up or down enough. There should be at least two trades made in each of the first five rounds. AT LEAST. Yet, it is not very often such trades happen. Moving up and down ensures a team that they will get full value for their selection. If you do not trade, and are forced to pick a player like Kevin Smith, at best your 3rd best RB on your roster, you are only getting 50% of the value of the 17th pick.

On the other hand, a team that is trying to trade up for a pick should be willing to pay a small premium to move up and get that specific player. The premium can be considered to be “insurance” to get that player for certain.

Looking at Bennett as a player, he was a major feature in the Dallas Cowboys “Hard Knocks” series were his position coaches continually shook their heads at a player that was so talented physically but seemed to be lacking in technique and smarts. Further limiting Bennett’s value is the fact that he is a backup to one of the premier tight ends in the league which will limit his ability to get on the field.

Grade: F Should have been selected: Late 3rd to 5th round.

20. Muncie Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP

In a remarkable, Pulitzer level investigative report Greg English documented the power struggles and takeover of a once proud Muncie franchise from its senility approaching original owner. Yet, with this selection one must wonder if the demented owner still is controlling the draft and/or the supposed young masterminds are being manipulated themselves. Higgins had some flashy return statistics, yet even with his 3 punt return touchdowns Higgins still did not lead the league in punt return average and his previous year punt return average was a meager 5.2 yards per return. AS a wide out Higgins is limited and in two NFL seasons he has only 28 receptions and limited upside in this area.

Comparing Higgins to other gamebreaking NFL return men in the past like Dante Hall and Devin Hester, Higgins is not in their league as a return man and does not have their upside as a receiver. Although Hall became an adequate receiver and Hester is developing into one, their return abilities also diminished over time. Consider that Hester’s punt return average in 2008 was a meager 6.2 yards per return and his kickoff return average was a rather pedestrian 21.9 demonstrates what a reach Hester was when he was selected 14th overall in the 2007 draft.

When comparing Higgins to Hester, and considering that in the 2008 draft Higgins went in the 19th round, you have to wonder how 3 punt returns for a touchdown can spring a player into the first round. Return men have limited value in this league and Donnie Avery is a #1 receiver in waiting and still waiting to be drafted.

Grade: F Should have been selected: Late 2nd round – 4th round

21. Great Lakes Chris Long Defensive End Virginia

Long goes in the same spot that Mario Williams fell to in the 2007 TTFBA draft after being a top pick in the NFL draft. Williams fell to the 21st selection because his rookie year was considered to be a failure after being selected over Reggie Bush in the NFL draft. Long, whom many thought might be the first selection slipped to #2 in the NFL draft, was also a disappointment in his rookie campaign. But, unlike Williams this is the range that Long should be considered because he simply does not have the unique physical size and speed that Mario Williams has to become a dominant NFL player. Long, on the other hand, is a smart, try hard player that may never become a dominant player.

Grade: C Should have been selected: Late 1st round

22. Donelson Donnie Avery Wide Receiver Houston

With three first round selections Donelson truly upgrades their passing game, acquiring Marvin Harrison for trading down, selecting a true #1 receiver in Antonio Bryant, the top tight end in the draft, and a guy that can serve as a vertical threat (as well as potential #1 wide out). I am not certain that they thought that Avery would be here but they could not pass up the number three receiver in the draft here. Avery was the surprise first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft, although he lasted until the beginning of the second round. He has true vertical speed and the Rams are counting on him to be their primary receiver, but Avery may more similar to a Bernard Berrian and never develop into a 80+ catch guy.

Grade: B+ Should have been selected: 15-20

23. North Carolina Sam Baker Offensive Tackle USC

North Carolina had to be disappointed that Avery fell off the board one selection before them but they turn to upgrading the offensive line with Baker. Baker filled in as the starting left tackle and was an important player in the Falcons offensive turnaround. He is being counted on protecting Matt Ryan well into the future. Baker may never project as an All-Pro tackle, but with continued offensive performance he will most likely fall into a level just below that. Injury problems have plagued Baker in his college career and the start of his NFL career. This pick is not as valuable because Baker does not rank out significantly higher than offensive linemen still available in this draft like Duane Brown, Brandon Albert, or Mike Pollack.

Grade: C- Should have been selected: Late first through middle 2nd

24. Tillman Curtis Lofton Inside Linebacker Oklahoma

Sometimes being the best team in the league without major holes is a major benefit because that team can sit back and let a player fall to him. Lofton is the third Atlanta Falcon rookie to go in the TTFBA first round, showing one source of the teams remarkable turnaround. Lofton is a prototypical middle linebacker in the NFL that demonstrated enough ability that the Falcons were willing to let both Michael Boley and Keith Brooking go in free agency. The Falcons concentrated on their defense in the offseason and will enter the year with Lofton as their defensive leader.

Grade: B Should have been selected: Late first – early second

DTC FIRE STAFF; NEW OUTLOOK ON HORIZON

After much backlash in 2008 by league ownership, the DTC will have a new look (outlook) for the 2009 season.  The entire DTC staff was let go today in a major shakeup that was requested by the TTFBA membership.  One league member was quoted as saying, "These guys were just too rough on us.  We just want something positive written once in awhile.  I think a new staff overhaul was in order!"  Along with a new staff the DTC will be searching for a new VP in charge of operations.  Among the names being bantered around were Richard Simmons, Tony Robbins and Al Gore.  When being asked about Al Gore, the DTC Ownership (to remain nameless for security purposes) stated, "Well, we just figured that Al created the internet and maybe, just maybe, he would have a better relationship with Colossus than anyone else.  All in all we are looking for a much more positive, energetic and upbeat atmosphere around here.  I think the ownership group will be happy to see what we have in store for them in 2009."  Speaking of Colossus, the DTC's mega main frame computer, a source close to the DTC operation has reported that it will undergo a state of the art upgrade.  Of which will include a newly designed "FRIENDLY" chip.  The friendly chip is is believed to not only predict the weekly games at a high percentage but will also be much more cordial to those who do not show winning tendencies or make stupid trades (laugh here).

"All in all we are proud to give the TTFBA league a new facelift for this season," stated DTC ownership, "something we believe will give the membership group, as a whole, a more confident feeling about themselves."

MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE DTC BLOG DAILY FOR RECENT NEWS AND UPDATES!